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ICU Scores: Mortality Prediction Model-24 Hours
Estimating prognosis is potentially useful as a measure of ICU performance and as a guide for the clinical care of individual patients. In this study, mortality prediction models (MPMs) for patients in an adult general medical-surgical ICU were derived from data gathered at ICU admission and after 24 and 48 h of ICU care. A predictive model was developed which incorporated a sequence of probabilities collected over time in the ICU. The results of this study suggest that using serial observations may enhance substantially the usefulness of the MPM as a vehicle for helping families anticipate the patients' likely outcome:
Refining intensive care unit outcome prediction by using changing probabilities of mortality.
Lemeshow S, Teres D, Avrunin JS, Gage RW.
Crit Care Med. 1988 May;16(5):470-7.
Division of Public Health, School of Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
Mortality Prediction Models-24 (MPM-24)
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Patients excluded :Coronary care, cardiac surgery, burn patients, age < 14 years
Up to MPM 24
Number of lines :
Arterial and IV lines
Endotracheal or tracheostomy tube
Foley catheter
Pacing wires (counted as 1 line)
Chest tubes (counted individually)
NG tube
Drains, sumps
The abdomen is considered in quadrants with all drains / sumps in a particular quadrant counted as one "line"
"Texas" catheters are excluded
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